I thought I would finally weigh in with some thoughts on the outcome of the GOP runoff Tuesday night. I am thoroughly thrilled that Chairman Charles Bannister defeated Commissioner Lorraine Green. I view this as a victory, if only symbolically, for private property rights in Gwinnett. While I don’t think most voters really think carefully about property rights, I do think that, as chairman, Green would have be less of a threat to specific zoning cases as opposed to her term in District 1. However, with her poor record on property rights and apparent preference for more government, I am glad that such positions were not rewarded with a higher seat. Charles Bannister may not be the perfect candidate or Chairman, but he has done an adequate job for four years and I feel much more comfortable with him in the center chair.
I did hate to see Bruce LeVell fail to defeat Shirley Lasseter in District 1. Bruce ran, in my opinion, by far the cleanest, most positive campaign in Gwinnett this year. Hopefully, this will not be the last time we see his name in local politics. As for Lasseter, she was not my first choice, but I am pleased to see her as take over Lorraine Green’s seat instead of Carol Hassell. I am cautiously optimistic about Lasseter’s stance on property rights. I think she is likely to be a definite improvement over the previous two District 1 commissioners. Of course the last two wound up running for Chairman, which brings us to some very early predictions for 2012.
I think there is a definite chance that Charles Bannister will call it a career in 2012. He would be 73 in four years. If he does hang up it, I fully expect Mike Beaudreau to throw his hat into the Chairman’s ring. Mike is young, has “politician good looks” and has a history of organization leadership roles including the Clemson College Republicans. I have to believe he has higher political aspirations than just being a district commissioner. I would not be entirely shocked if Lorraine Green made another go for it given how close she came, but after four years of not having to deal with the political grind, she may not want the hassle all over again. I also have to speculate whether Lasseter will be groomed by Bannister to run for Chairman. I have read on Gwinnett political message boards that Bannister and she are “allies.” If that were to happen, races for both the District 1 and 3 seats would be thrown wide open to new faces. Could Bruce LeVell have another go? Would Doug Stacks return? While 2012 poses some interesting potential scenarios, we cannot forget that Districts 2 and 4 will be contested in 2010.
This next election for those seats could pose an enormous sea change in Gwinnett politics. The AJC published an article today on Gwinnett becoming a majority-minority county. I found the following analysis very pertinent to these projections:
The changes in Gwinnett’s racial and ethnic makeup will also affect the ballot box eventually.
State Sen. Curt Thompson (D-Norcross) represents one of the most diverse districts in the metro area. He has said he has to campaign in Spanish, Korean, Hindi, Vietnamese and Mandarin to keep his seat.
Could 2010 be the year we see the Democrats gain a seat on the commission for the first time in decades? Bert Nasuti’s District 2 is comprised of Norcross and Lilburn, two areas that have experienced a significant demographic shift. I don’t know if we would see a Democratic commissioner in 2010, especially if Nasuti runs for reelection, but I think this will be the first district to fall to the Democrats. I seem to recall that current District 4 commissioner Kevin Kenerly said during his last campaign that this would be his last term. Even without an incumbent should Kenerly not run, District 4 is likely fairly safe for the GOP as there is a significant portion of the district north of Lawrenceville going toward Sugar Hill and Braselton.
While we cannot know what will happen in the next four years, I think the one thing we can expect is a definite change in the composition of the Board of Commissioners. While we saw a very bitter and contention chairman’s race this summer, the differences between Charles Bannister and Lorrine Green will likely pale in comparison to what we could expect from the Democrats if they manage to get their hands on the three of the five commission votes. That could well make even the most ardent opponent of Lorraine Green and Mike Beaudreau, embrace them! Fasten your seatbelts, ladies and gentlemen, this ride is bound to very interesting and maybe even a bit bumpy.